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For years, the right-handed batter’s box has quietly been a habitat under attack. Power hitters who reside there permanently have become an endangered species because of a confluence of changes to their environment. Scouts, coaches, and executives — the experts charged with preserving this type of slugger — have seen some regrowth this season on the home run leaderboard, but there’s reason to fear that such gains may be temporal. Although eight of the top 10 home run hitters in 2014 are right-handed, such success comes on the heels of some very fallow years, and it belies the larger trend. Only eight right-handed hitters reached 30 home runs in 2013, and only 36 hit 20 homers, both the fewest in a non-strike-shortened season since 1992. Only 11 righties posted a slugging percentage above.500 last year, also the fewest in any season since 1992. And even though the top of the current leaderboard is righty heavy, there’s been no appreciable change in the overall rate of right-handed home run hitting: The overall HR/AB and slugging numbers for righties in 2014 are only a modicum better than the 2013 figures, and they are still worse than 2011 and 2012.
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“It’s hard to find power,” Braves general manager Frank Wren says, “and it’s really hard to find right-handed power in today’s game.” Wren’s recent actions reflect that reality: Concerned with a lefty-dominated lineup two years ago, he hoarded power-hitting right-handed bats, adding B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, and Evan Gattis to the mix. Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers, who’d traded Justin Upton to the Braves, attempted to replace that big right-handed bat this winter by trading up-and-comers Adam Eaton and Tyler Skaggs in a three-team deal to land righty Mark Trumbo, a 30-homer hitter with poor on-base skills, to pair with another righty masher, Paul Goldschmidt. While it’s hardly a revelation that offense and power are down across the majors — for the second consecutive year, teams are scoring 4.17 runs per game, the lowest rate since 1992 — Wren, Towers, and others have acted to address the peculiarity that the decline is steeper in the right-handed batter’s box than it is across home plate. ESPN Insider’s Keith Law says the trend has been discussed in scouting circles for a decade. The last two MLB drafts haven’t offered much hope for change. “There were a couple of guys that stood out, but overall it was left-handed dominant hitting,” Wren says of last week’s draft.
Meanwhile, Kris Bryant, whom the Cubs selected no. 2 overall in 2013, was such an anomaly that Law notes, “Bryant’s kind of right-handed power is very hard to find.” No one interviewed for this story is confident in a catchall answer to explain the decline, and the most common theory is that this is merely the natural ebb and flow. “I’m sure we’ll get right-handed hitters back,” one AL scout says. “I’ve got to think it’s cyclical.
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This is the Bronze Age of right-handed hitters. There’ll be a Golden Age coming.” Despite that optimism, some underlying numbers and hypotheses suggest that the scarcity is more prevailing than passing. Since the decline of performance-enhancing drug usage affects all hitters, here are five theories that, taken in aggregate, might explain why right-handed sluggers are losing more power than their left-handed and switch-hitting brethren. Right-handed pitchers are getting better and using their breaking balls more Right-handed pitchers annually throw between 70 and 75 percent of all big league innings.